tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-72372540090920195162024-03-17T22:42:18.346-07:00DRC Economy- Economie de la RDCBlog dedicated to the Congolese economy. This is not a political blog.Herve Otschudihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02379026842351230693noreply@blogger.comBlogger50125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7237254009092019516.post-7730810759956694832021-04-04T04:47:00.002-07:002021-04-14T00:45:28.033-07:00Discussion sur le secteur bancaire avec Bob Nzoimbengene, Partner chez Deloitte.<p><span style="text-align: justify;">Une fois n’est pas coutume, l’analyse du secteur bancaire sera faite cette fois-ci par un ancien banquier. J’ai le plaisir d’accueillir mon bon ami Bob Nzoimbengene, Partner chez Deloitte. Pour ceux qui ne le savent pas encore, Deloitte publie chaque année une étude très détaillée (pour la dernière étude, veuillez cliquer <a href="https://www2.deloitte.com/cd/fr/pages/services-financiers/articles/quels-enjeux-secteur-bancaire-en-republique-democratique-du-congo.html" target="_blank">ici</a>) sur la situation du secteur bancaire et il est toujours très intéressant pour les professionnels du secteur d’avoir une perspective extérieure. </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">Hervé OTSCHUDI </span>: Alors Bob, comment se porte le secteur bancaire congolais ? </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="color: red;">Bob David NZOIMBENGENE</span> : Sur le plan purement de la performance vue à travers les indicateurs clés, j’estime que le secteur bancaire congolais se porte bien. Il continue à réaliser des performances très appréciables. Saviez-vous que le secteur bancaire congolais a réalisé une croissance de son résultat net après impôt de plus de 300% en douze ans ? Son résultat net est passé de 7 MUSD (en 2008 année marquée par l’implantation de plusieurs banques) à 28 MUSD (en 2019). </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Le seul bémol est l’instabilité de ce résultat, qui a évolué en dents de scie durant les dix dernières années, au point d’atteindre même les résultats globaux négatifs en 2016 et 2017, pour remonter 66 MUSD en 2018.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Par contre, les autres indicateurs tels que la mobilisation des dépôts, la création de la monnaie et la création de la richesse (PNB) évoluent en augmentation chaque année. Ces indicateurs enregistrent des taux de croissance à deux chiffres presque chaque année. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Malgré ces résultats, nous pensons que le secteur bancaire congolais peut faire mieux que sa performance actuelle. En effet, suivant une étude scientifique réalisée, qui sera publiée très bientôt, le jour où nous parviendrons à réduire sensiblement le volume des transactions en espèces dans notre pays et par ricochet à atteindre un taux de bancarisation de plus 30%, la taille du secteur bancaire congolais et son résultat net vont quintupler. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">Hervé OTSCHUDI</span> : Quel a été l’impact de la COVID sur l’activité des banques congolaises ?</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="color: red;">Bob David NZOIMBENGENE</span> : Comme indiqué dans notre étude (Deloitte RDC) sur le secteur bancaire congolais, la crise sanitaire de la COVID 19 a impacté négativement le secteur bancaire congolais, qui a enregistré une baisse de ses commissions reçues notamment du fait de la réduction des dépenses de consommation et une chute des revenus d’intérêt du fait de la stagnation du tirage sur les lignes de crédit et de découvert (les activités étant en baisse) et de la réduction des transactions. Ce qui a comme conséquence la baisse du Produit Net Bancaire des acteurs. Aussi, nous avons noté une baisse de la qualité du portefeuille des banques, augmentant ainsi le niveau de provisions à constituer, malgré quelques mesures d’assouplissement du régulateur. Cependant, on a noté une appréciation du coefficient d’exploitation de certaines banques.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">Hervé OTSCHUDI</span> : Est-ce que, selon toi, les mesures prises par la BCC ont permis d’atténuer l’impact (négatif) de la pandémie sur l’activité bancaire ? Si oui, de quelle manière ? </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="color: red;">Bob David NZOIMBENGENE </span>: La Banque Centrale du Congo a réagi rapidement pour soutenir les banques établies en RDC, en prenant un certain nombre de mesures dont notamment la baisse du taux de la réserve obligatoire sur les dépôts à vue en monnaie nationale (de 2 à 0 %), le report, au mois de janvier 2022, de l’entrée en vigueur des dispositions relatives au relèvement du niveau du capital minimum des banques à l’équivalent en CDF de 50 MUSD, la non limitation du nombre de restructurations ou de rééchelonnements des créances tombées en souffrance durant la crise de COVID-19 et l’imposition aux banques de suspendre l’application des pénalités sur les créances en souffrance pendant crise. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">A mon avis, toutes ces mesures n’ont pas d’impact significatif sur l’activité et la performance des banques. Néanmoins, elles ont un impact sur la conformité des banques à certaines instructions de la Banque Centrale du Congo.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">Hervé OTSCHUDI</span> : Certains changements règlementaires. Quels sont les changements qui auront un impact direct sur les clients (particuliers comme entreprises) des banques ? De quelle manière ? </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="color: red;">Bob David NZOIMBENGENE </span>: Nous pouvons répertorier ici deux changements importants :</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><ul><li>La non-limitation du nombre de restructurations ou de rééchelonnements des créances tombées en souffrance durant la crise de COVID-19 et l’imposition aux banques de suspendre l’application des pénalités sur les créances en souffrance pendant la crise constitue une vraie opportunité pour les clients en difficulté, de solliciter le rééchelonnement ou la restructuration de leurs crédits auprès de leurs banquiers. De la même manière, Ces clients vont bénéficier de la mesure relative à la non-application des pénalités de retard. Ce qui impacte positivement leur trésorerie et leur résultat financier de la période.</li></ul></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><ul><li>Et le seconde est le rappel à l’ordre faite aux banques concernant le paiement de toute somme en francs congolais ou autre globalement égale ou supérieure à 10 000 dollars américains, qui ne peut pas être acquittée en espèces ou par titres au porteur. Malgré la dérogation prévue à l’instruction 15Bis de la BCC, les clients des banques devraient elles-mêmes veiller au respect strict de cette disposition. Car en cas d’inobservance, ils peuvent également être sanctionnés. D’où l’intérêt de limiter les transactions en espèces et de privilégier les transactions (paiements et recouvrements) via le circuit bancaire. </li></ul></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">Hervé OTSCHUDI </span>: Comme tu l’as dit précédemment, cette dernière mesure devrait donner un coup de fouet au secteur bancaire. En effet, fini (officiellement) les achats en cash de propriétés à plusieurs millions de dollars… </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Merci Bob d’avoir pris le temps de répondre à mes questions qui, j’en suis sûr, auront permis à nos lecteurs d’avoir une meilleure compréhension de l’état du secteur bancaire dans notre pays. </div><div><br /></div></div><p></p>Herve Otschudihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02379026842351230693noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7237254009092019516.post-54527143424860086452021-03-18T02:31:00.002-07:002021-03-18T02:31:56.508-07:00Central Bank of Congo (BCC) has cut interest rate to 15,5%. This is good for investment! Right? hmmmm let's see...<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Last week, the BCC has reduced its Prime Rate from 18,5% to 15,5% taking into consideration the positive progress made regarding inflation and FOREX. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">As usual, I have received comments from people with good knowledge of economic theory (not being sarcastic here), telling me how great the news is for investments as banks are going to reduce their own interest rates, which makes sense... in theory.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Below are the two declared objectives of the BCC when reducing the rate:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">The first one is to ensure credit is more affordable and accessible to economic agents by reducing the price of money. This should stimulate investment and boost growth by increasing production with the corollary of job creation and consumption</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">This is only possible thanks to the second objective. Indeed, thanks to this rate reduction, commercial banks will now be able to refinance themselves at a lower from the BCC. Indeed, it is expected from banks to pass on this drop, and reduce the rates charged to their own customers in order to encourage the demand for loans.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">As a local banker, let me tell you what is going to happen. For several banks, interest rates charged to customers are flat and will only vary at renewal. Therefore, only new credits could enjoy lower rates. Other banks interest rates are directly link to the BCC rates (BCC rates + margin). In this case, the impact will be immediate. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">All good right? Interest rates charged by banks will decrease eventually, investment will rise blablabla… </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Well, now we need to ask ourselves the most important question of them all. In which currency people borrow in our beloved country? If you read this blog, you already know that our economy is highly dollarized and that more than 90% of banks credit portfolio are in US dollars! </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">As a result, the impact of this change will mainly impact the remaining 10% that are usually civil servants’ consumer loans, governmental or local entities that needs to pay salaries, etc. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">The only way for this mechanism (BCC rates transferred to customers through banks) to work is for commercial bank to be indebted to the BCC in the same currency their customers borrow. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">It is worth noting that while CDF rates stand at 15,5% + a margin (I know but banks need to pay salaries too), rates in USD for Corporate customers (the one making the big CAPEX) are on an average at 8%. Consumer and commercial loans are also already cheaper in USD than in CDF. Why would people borrow in CDF if they are offered a choice?...</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">I argue, once again, that our monetary policy is impotent… but those are only my conclusion…</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><br /></div>Herve Otschudihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02379026842351230693noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7237254009092019516.post-20510402768778325382021-03-07T01:12:00.004-08:002021-03-07T01:13:55.763-08:00The DRC economy blog is back!!! <p style="text-align: justify;">Two years ago, I wrote my last article, and I had no intention to restart writing on the DRC economy for a simple reason: It is too depressing! We usually go from one bad news to another… </p><p style="text-align: justify;">In the meantime, I have received several messages from people I know and even from complete strangers that didn’t understand why I stopped and insisted that they would like me to continue writing simple but relevant analyses on our economy. So here we are…</p><p style="text-align: justify;">Soooooo did things improve since my last article two years ago? Let’s see…</p><p style="text-align: justify;">When we look at the indicators, it is not brilliant. The Congolese Franc went from 1600 to 2000 to the dollar, this represents a 25% depreciation in two years. The inflation rose to 15,704% according to the Central Bank of Congo (BCC) which is quite high. The BCC prime rate rose to 18,75% p.a., making the real interest rate positive for the first time since the inflation started skyrocketing, which is a good thing for investors in Congolese Francs. </p><p style="text-align: justify;">I know, I know, you are going to tell me that this is all COVID fault but actually this performance was registered before the pandemic started and I have to admit that since the beginning of the pandemic, the depreciation and the inflation are relatively well contained. </p><p style="text-align: justify;">Despite the effects of this pandemic that has destroyed most of the economies in the Western World, it seems that we have managed to avoid our first recession in 20 years!!! Hurray!!! According to the BCC preliminary computation, the GDP should grow by 0,8% in 2020 and by 3,2% in 2021 thanks to a very strong performance of the mining industry (forever our savior unfortunately- read past articles <a href="https://drceconomy.blogspot.com/2019/02/the-dangers-of-relying-on-mining-to.html">here</a>). </p><p style="text-align: justify;">According to a BCC survey, Congolese businessmen are more and more optimistic about the perspectives of the DRC economy, which is a very good sign. </p><p style="text-align: justify;">On a good note, the copper hit a nine-year peak of US$8,806.50/t on February the 19th. As you know, DRC is the main producer of the metal in Africa and despite the fact that analysts think the fundamentals behind this surge have disappeared, we expect a positive impact on the meager DRC international reserves that currently stand at US$ 693 million. </p><p style="text-align: justify;">In a country where the politics has an immense (usually negative) impact on the economy, we can’t wait to discover the members of the cabinet of the new Prime Minister. The new government is expected in the coming days and its composition as well as its size will give us an indication of the direction we are heading to. </p><p style="text-align: justify;">As you can see, I didn’t respond to my own question. I will let each reader respond for himself…</p><p style="text-align: justify;">To be continued… </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p>Herve Otschudihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02379026842351230693noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7237254009092019516.post-62977879454352845132019-02-12T04:55:00.000-08:002019-02-12T04:55:11.848-08:00The dangers of relying on mining to develop our country...<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
I am coming back (again) on diversification. This time, we are briefly looking at the prices of two of our most important exports, Copper and Cobalt. </div>
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Cobalt has been on everyone's lips recently due to its crucial role in the manufacturing of electrical vehicles batteries.</div>
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As you can see in the graph below, the cobalt has reached 94 500 USD per tonne last year before significantly dropping below 35 000 USD per tonne. Our good old <i><b>supply and demand</b></i> friend did its thing again! As prices increased, more people became interested in extracting the stuff that was usually considered as a simple by-product of copper. As a result, the capacity of production significantly increased during the course of the year leading to the price drop. </div>
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The price may eventually increase due to the high demand but we do not really know when and that is the issue. Knowing that at least <a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/congo/exports">76% of our exports</a> comes from those two commodities, we are extremely reliant on the latter when it comes to revenues and FOREX reserves. The issue is that we have no control over those prices and therefore we should not plan our expenses based on uncertain revenues...<br />
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you can find more details on cobalt projection for 2019 in this <a href="https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/battery-metals-investing/cobalt-investing/cobalt-outlook/">article</a>.<br />
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Cobalt price between March 2017 and January 2019 </td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Rj2cYoToTd8/XGE-WTU9l4I/AAAAAAAAEo0/z6rvWHMrzuY7gyzyT88M-gQUqqjojZBXwCLcBGAs/s1600/Capture%2Bd%25E2%2580%2599e%25CC%2581cran%2B2019-02-11%2Ba%25CC%2580%2B10.17.41.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="601" data-original-width="718" height="534" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Rj2cYoToTd8/XGE-WTU9l4I/AAAAAAAAEo0/z6rvWHMrzuY7gyzyT88M-gQUqqjojZBXwCLcBGAs/s640/Capture%2Bd%25E2%2580%2599e%25CC%2581cran%2B2019-02-11%2Ba%25CC%2580%2B10.17.41.png" title="" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Evolution du prix du Cuivre sur les 12 derniers mois</td></tr>
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Herve Otschudihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02379026842351230693noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7237254009092019516.post-45447103910637732582019-01-31T03:21:00.002-08:002019-01-31T03:21:54.834-08:00Diversifying the economy… Let's go on vacation!!!
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: small;">Like a lot of people, I love traveling when I am on vacation. Unfortunately (for my own country), I tend to travel abroad to spend my money. One of the reasons is that I want to discover new countries whenever possible. However, the main reason is that our country is not tourists friendly! Traveling within the DRC is very expensive! It can be more expensive than travelling abroad, accommodation are not always adequate, infrastructures are insufficient, etc. </span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: small;">In addition to that we need to deal with our immigration services, even as Congolese! And yes, when you travel within the DRC you have to go through immigration and produce useless documents such as « ordre de mission ». Why should I go through the immigration at the airport when I take a flight from Kinshasa to Matadi?! What is even more ridiculous is that I can do the same trip by road and there will be no immigration to go through? So what is exactly the point of controlling us at the airport for local flights? I was once asked for my ID on the parking of the local airport in Kinshasa by a woman telling me she was from the borders police!!! What was she doing on that parking?!?! Maybe I missed something...<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: small;">I mentioned in my previous post that it was urgent for that we diversify our economy.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> Why can we just start with tourism!? It will create thousands of jobs and bring in desperately needed foreign currencies. </span></span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-converted-space">To put this into perspective, let's use some data here. Today, tourism contribution to the DRC GDP is only <a href="https://knoema.fr/atlas/topics/Tourisme/Contribution-totale-du-tourisme-et-voyage-au-PIB/Contribution-totale-au-PIB-percent-proportion">1.8%</a> while it represents 8,9% for the South African economy</span></span></span><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; font-size: small;">! In relative terms, it is 5 times more but in absolute value it represents more than 31 billion dollars! And 31 billion dollars represents 82% of our own <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?end=2017&name_desc=false&start=2017&view=map">GDP</a>! </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;">That's right, with tourism only, South Africa is generating as much as 82% of our entire economy!!!</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;">The question is: "Why can't we be a tourism champion?". Personally, I see no reason why. We have one the most beautiful countries in the world and yes I am biased but still! We have more national national parks than most countries with unique species, we have falls, volcanos, mountains (some with real snow- No need to go in a mall in Dubai) lacs, beaches, forrest and most importantly an amazing friendly people! </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;">First, if we could simplify the obtention of visa, it would be great! We are behaving like tourists are going to run away with our gorillas or our copper on their back. The difficulty for foreign (both tourists and business people) in obtaining visa is insane! We have colleagues from London asking for visas on arrival because the process to get a visa in our Embassy in London looks like Koh Lanta! </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;">Second, ... actually it is time to get back to work to make money for my next trip, probably abroad... </span></div>
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Herve Otschudihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02379026842351230693noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7237254009092019516.post-63821467094828368972019-01-29T01:09:00.000-08:002019-01-29T01:09:04.375-08:00New Year, New President, Same Challenges...
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<span class="s1">First of all, happy new year to all my readers!!!</span></div>
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<span class="s1">For the first time in… hummmm for the first time ever, the DRC has witnessed a peaceful transfer of power in the country, in nearly 60 years.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></div>
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<span class="s1">The new president is inheriting a country that could be in a better shape economically… Although last year indicators were better than the 2017 ones; there is a lot to be done.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">In 2018, the inflation rate stood @ 7% from 55% the previous year and the Congolese Franc remained stable with a depreciation of only 0,13% against the US Dollar. The Forex reserves remain very low at USD 914 million, representing only 3 weeks of imports.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">The challenges faced by the new president are enormous. Indeed, the DRC is considered as one of the most corrupted countries in the world (ranked 161 on 180 countries by Transparency International) with one of the most difficult business environment (#184/190 according to the World Bank) as well as an extremely low purchasing power with one of the poorest population in the world (#176/188 according to the UNDP).</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">It is also extremely urgent to diversify to economy. It has to be done and it should not be an empty slogan. The country cannot continue to remain at the mercy of the commodities prices. According to Central Bank of Congo data, mining sector contribution to the country GDP was above 63% by mid-June 2018 and unfortunately, the multiplier effect of this sector on the economy has been very low so far…</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">There is a lot of expectations from the new president and I imagine he won’t get any grace period.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"><span class="Apple-converted-space"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"><span class="Apple-converted-space">I wrote in this article title that the challenges remained the same but I think there will be even bigger for the new president as people's hope has rarely be so high! </span></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">Let wish him good luck for the good of this beautiful country…</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p3">
<span class="s1">H.O.</span></div>
<br />Herve Otschudihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02379026842351230693noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7237254009092019516.post-15418887458105542932018-08-01T00:15:00.000-07:002018-08-01T00:15:09.664-07:00Quick review of 2018 first semester…
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<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The first of August is a public holiday in the
DRC. On that day, we honor our parents, both alive and dead… But today is also
a special day as one of DRC main opponents is coming back home after spending
10 years in Scheveningen prison, just six months before the elections due on
December the 23<sup>rd</sup>. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It
promises many interesting months to come…<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">However, let’s try not to digress into the
political space although we have demonstrated at several occasion its impact on
the local economy…<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">When we look at the principal economic indicators,
they have all improved since the beginning of the year! The inflation stands at
12% as of July the 27<sup>th</sup> after closing the year 2017 at almost 60%! As
a result, the Central Bank has decreased its prime rate to 14% from 20% maintaining
a positive real interest rate for the first time in many months. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">At the end of June, the public finances have
registered a small surplus of $ 2,2 million compared to a deficit of $ 23 million
for the same period in 2017 according to the Central Bank data.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The Congolese Franc remained relatively stable
and the foreign exchanges increased by approximately 40% since January to reach
$ 1,2 billion. This is still low by international standards but still an
improvement. The country has benefited from an increase in production of its
major commodities as well as the increase of their prices, notably cobalt that
climbed up to $ 98 000 a ton in April before going down to $ 69 750 this
week due to oversupply according to <a href="https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN1KL1OT?__twitter_impression=true" target="_blank">Reuters</a></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"> </span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The GDP growth is expected at 4,2% for 2018 compared
to 3,7% the previous year. This is an improvement, but it is still too small
when compared to the population growth. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The biggest event of the semester is without
any doubt the adoption of the new Mining Code. Some important changes were made
in the new Code and they include increased royalties from 2 to 3% for copper
and cobalt and up to 10% for any commodity designated “strategic substances”.
It is a safe bet to say that both cobalt and coltan could qualify as “strategic
substances”.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Additionally, a new 50%
windfall tax or tax on super profits has been introduced. Super profits are
defined as income realized when commodity prices rise 25% above levels in the
project’s bankable feasibility study. The state’s free share in mining also
increases, from 5 to 10%...<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Obviously, major mining companies were not happy
about those changes but according to expert, this Mining Code, despite the
increase in royalties, remains one of the most competitive in the world. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Personally, I argue that any initiative that
will improve public finances without discouraging investments should be encouraged.
<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Let’s just hope that those additional revenues
will be spent wisely…<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">You can find the new Mining Code <a href="http://congomines.org/system/attachments/assets/000/001/467/original/J.O._n%C2%B0_spe%C3%ACcial_du_28_mars_2018_CODE_MINIER.PDF.pdf?1523182711" target="_blank">here</a> (in French)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<!--EndFragment--><br />Herve Otschudihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02379026842351230693noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7237254009092019516.post-8480140113695786292018-03-07T06:57:00.001-08:002018-03-07T06:58:30.069-08:00The Mining Companies and the VAT reimbursement issue- Interview with Yves Ilunga, CFO, Director of companies. <!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="heading 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="heading 9"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="toc 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="toc 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="toc 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="35" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="10" QFormat="true" Name="Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="Table Grid"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" QFormat="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" QFormat="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" QFormat="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="42" Name="Plain Table 2"/>
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<w:WrapTextWithPunct/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Default Paragraph Font"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Message Header"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="11" QFormat="true" Name="Subtitle"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Salutation"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Date"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Block Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Hyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="FollowedHyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Document Map"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Plain Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="E-mail Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Top of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Bottom of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal (Web)"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Acronym"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Address"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Cite"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Code"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Definition"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Keyboard"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Preformatted"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Sample"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Typewriter"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Variable"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal Table"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="annotation subject"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="No List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Contemporary"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Elegant"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Professional"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Balloon Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Theme"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" QFormat="true"
Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="42" Name="Plain Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="43" Name="Plain Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="44" Name="Plain Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="45" Name="Plain Table 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="40" Name="Grid Table Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="Grid Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="List Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="List Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="List Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
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</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;">Today I have had the opportunity to
have a discussion with Yves Ilunga around the issue mining companies are facing
regarding the VAT reimbursement.</span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Yves Ilunga has been acting as CFO
for different mining companies in several countries in Africa including the DRC. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #00b0f0; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Hervé OTSCHUDI</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">: Mr Ilunga, we all red Bloomberg
article last September saying that Congo Miners Claim $1.2 Billion of Unpaid
Tax Reimbursements. What is the<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">current situation? Better or worse? <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #c00000; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Yves ILUNGA: </span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">I haven't had a look at the latest
figures, however, I do suspect that if Government does not exempt mining
companies from paying input VAT on imports or does not allow them to compensate
their VAT Credit against payable taxes such as payroll taxes, and income tax,
then the situation can only get worst. Based on the information received from various
key players within the industry, I suspect that the issue is still being
addressed on an ad-hoc basis ("A la tete du Client", as we say in French).
<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #00b0f0; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Hervé OTSCHUDI</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>What prevents the government from reimbursing the VAT?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #c00000; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Yves ILUNGA</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">: In my humble opinion, I do not
believe that Government had fully assessed the implications of implementing VAT
in 2011. 97 to 98% of our exports are comprised of mining products. We also
have a significant portion of our small industrial base that produces zero "VATed"
products such as cement and basic food stuffs. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Considering the importance of both
these segments in our economy, and the requirement to essentially
"reimburse" Input VAT incurred by companies operating in these
sectors of the economy, stricter treasury rules had to be implemented in the
management of Input VAT received from these entities.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">What I practically mean in
accounting terms is that VAT received from these industries should have been
accounted for as payable and not as income by Government. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">When you have an industry that is
VAT exempted either because its main source of revenue is derived from exports,
which are zero rated, or because its main source of revenue is generated from
zero-rated products, you should essentially assume that all VAT received
through expenditures incurred by these companies will be reimbursable at some
stage in the future.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #00b0f0; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Hervé OTSCHUDI</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">: <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Is the VAT system, as it is applied, adequate
for the DRC economy?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #c00000; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Yves ILUNGA</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">: I don't believe that we should be
solely speaking about the structure of our economy. Many countries around the
World have a positive balance of payment (I.e. exports are higher than imports)
and similar VAT Rules to the DRC, where exports are exempted from output VAT.
However, what these countries are doing right is that they carefully manage
income from VAT payments, in order to ensure that they have sufficient funds
available for reimbursement.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">It also needs to be noted here that
late reimbursement of VAT by Government in certain jurisdictions will result in
interests’ payment by Government. That's not the case in the DRC! VAT is not
only reimbursed (when this actually happens) without interests, but is
reimbursed in Congolese Francs. Implying that businesses have lost out on
financial income that could have been generated with these funds, and have been
subject to forex loses resulting from the weakening of the Congolese Francs.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #00b0f0; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Hervé OTSCHUDI</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">: I can only imagine the size of
those foreign exchange loses based on CDF depreciation observed the last two
years. The worst part is that the VAT reimbursement is still pending while the
local currency is yet to be stabilized. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">What could be the alternative for
the government?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #c00000; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Yves ILUNGA</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">: I'm a firm believer that the DRC
did not have the maturity required to implement VAT... and the results are
showing! I am of the opinion that we should have retained the "ICA"
(Impot sur le Chiffre d'Affaires) system.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The "ICA" was a special
sales tax payable by the Client, and was not reimbursable. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It allowed government to better plan for
fiscal income and did not come with all the headache related to managing VAT.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">However, considering that we have
already implemented VAT, I am of the opinion that we need to cure the cancer
first, and then improve our overall health. What I mean is that we need to
ensure that Government meets its commitments and reimburses the VAT currently
due. As mentioned above, this could be in the form of tax credits on future tax
payments or by simply suspending the payment of VAT on imports by mining
companies and other affected industries. I insist that the suspension of VAT
must be on imports only, as suspending VAT on local purchases will only
transfer the problem to subcontractors and other local entities providing goods
and services to exempted industries, like mining. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">I understand that this might have negative
implications on government revenues in the future, however, "The Law is
The Law" and no one should be above it, including government.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">As funds are being returned to their
rightful owners, government should then implement a VAT treasury management plan
that will ensure that reimbursements take place at the right time and that
funds received form the payment of VAT are not recorded or used as Income.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #00b0f0; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Hervé OTSCHUDI</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">: What is the direct impact for
mining companies?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #c00000; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Yves ILUNGA</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">: The Impact on mining companies has
been potential loss of financial revenues, forex losses, and more importantly
the inability to meet working capital requirements, necessary for conducting
business. I would also like to highlight that for those companies with excess
cash, it implies a reduction of potential dividends that could have been paid
to shareholders, and in the case of mining companies that would include Government.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #00b0f0; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Hervé OTSCHUDI</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">: Mr. Ilunga, thank you very much
for your time…<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<!--EndFragment--><br />
<br />Herve Otschudihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02379026842351230693noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7237254009092019516.post-48437537053127592232018-01-23T00:23:00.000-08:002018-01-23T00:34:38.870-08:00You think 2016 was bad? 2017 was not better…<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #666666;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #666666;">Happy New Year to all
my readers! I wish you all the best for 2018! <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #666666;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #666666;">Weak GDP growth, high inflation, depreciation of
the Congolese Franc (CDF), decrease of the country international reserves, etc
characterized 2016. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 54.2pt;">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #666666;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #666666;">Well, from those indicators perspectives, 2017
was not better than 2016. Not only the CDF depreciated by another 32% against
the USD but also the inflation skyrocketed in 2017 (+54,71% in 2017 against
+23,6% the previous year). (There is a strong relation between the depreciation
of the local currency and the inflation as most goods consumed in the DRC are
imported). <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="color: #666666;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #666666;">The international reserves remained very low at
USD 858,7 millions representing only 3,77 weeks of imports. It only grew by USD
13,3m in one year. It is difficult to support your currency with such a weak
foreign exchange position. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="color: #666666;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #666666;">This year, the government can’t blame the World
Economic Outlook as the world grew faster in 2017 than it did in 2016.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The DRC also enjoyed higher commodity prices
with the price of cobalt increasing by more than 130% and the copper by 31% in
2017. Those commodities represent more than 90% of our exports and their
production actually increased in 2017 despite the electricity challenges. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="color: #666666;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #666666;">The direct impact of this is an expected growth
of 3,5% in 2017 compared to 2,4% in 2016. However, with a population growing at
an average rate of 3,3% over the last five years, this growth is simply
insufficient to impact the population standards of leaving.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="color: #666666;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #666666;">In 2017, we have witnessed the weirdest
monetary policy measure ever applied by our government when trying to stabilize
the CDF. It consisted in forbidding Bureau de Change displaying their exchange
rates outside their building! Apparently it was the source of the depreciation!
One lady was even jailed for displaying the rates… <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #666666;">Nestlé has decided to close its Congolese plant
in 2017 leaving more than 120 people out of jobs (thousands of people will be indirectly
impacted by this measure). The official reason are the poor purchasing power of
the Congolese, the inflation and the products entering fraudulently from Angola
without paying taxes. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #666666;">Heineken closed two of its plants in the
country with the same social consequences for its staff. Consumption of beer in
the country has always been a useful indicator of how the real economy is
performing. Indeed, when everything goes bad, beer is one of the last items on
the shopping list…<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #666666;">Mining companies are still waiting to be paid
back by the government their VAT for almost a billion of USD! For example, the government
owes to Rangold Resources USD 192 million in unpaid VAT rebates!!!<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="color: #666666;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #666666;">As I am typing this text, Internet has been
shut down by the government for the third consecutive day and no one knows when
it will be back. One can imagine the loss made not only by the Telco companies
but also by all organizations depending on their services. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="color: #666666;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #666666;">The sad reality is that doing business in the
DRC is more complicated than ever despite the government being happy that the
country jumped two places in World Bank doing business report. We are still one
of the worst performers in the world. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
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<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #666666;">Not only, we are not able to attract fresh significant
investments but we are also losing some of the key players that were already
operating here. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #666666;">Can we expect 2018 to be better? With all the
political uncertainty surrounding the country presidential election one cannot
be sure… <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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Herve Otschudihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02379026842351230693noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7237254009092019516.post-4143492714802884022017-06-28T04:29:00.001-07:002017-06-28T04:29:44.463-07:00The Central Bank of Congo (BCC) monetary policy is still… impotent… <div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">In 25th of January <a href="http://drceconomy.blogspot.com/2017/01/why-is-bcc-interest-rate-increase-wont.html" target="_blank">article</a>, I argued
that the Central Bank decision to increase its prime rate from 7 to 14%
wouldn’t help curb the Congolese Franc (CDF) depreciation. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Unfortunately (for the country), I
was right and 5 months later, the local currency further depreciated by almost
18%. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Earlier this week, the BCC has
increased its prime rate from 14 to 20% to stabilize the CDF.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Once again, I doubt this decision will have
any positive impact for the same reasons explained in my previous <a href="http://drceconomy.blogspot.com/2017/01/why-is-bcc-interest-rate-increase-wont.html" target="_blank">article</a>. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">With an inflation of 36%, the real
interest remains largely negative (-16%) and therefore, there is no incentive
to keep CDF. Why would someone buy treasury bills in CDF if the return worth less
than the principal invested equivalent in United States Dollars (USD) (remember
that the USD is the primary currency in the DRC)? <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The reality on the ground is that
people lost trust in the CDF; therefore, they try to get rid of it as fast as
possible. People are expecting the local currency to depreciate everyday and are
ready to buy USD at any rate fueling the CDF depreciation further… It is a
vicious circle, a self-fulfilling prophecy. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">In my opinion, the only short-term remedy
would be for the BCC to intervene on the Foreign Exchange market by selling USD
to reduce a little bit the pressure on the CDF. However, the international reserves
are limited to CDF 717m. Therefore, the intervention can only be limited.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Last week the Chamber of Mines,
announced that they are expecting a record production of copper for the year
2017 to 1,05 m tons. Copper is DRC primary source of foreign currencies. Hopefully,
this expected increase of production (+2,4%) would allow the BCC to rebuild its
international reserves in order to intervene on the market and limit this
hemorrhage.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
Herve Otschudihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02379026842351230693noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7237254009092019516.post-52929335308313822122017-06-12T05:59:00.000-07:002017-06-12T05:59:45.807-07:00Another bank is going down … <div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #eeeeee;">On the 8th of June 2017, the Central
Bank (BCC) Governor has issued a statement to inform us the people « avis
au public » that Fibank was going to be liquidated… <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #eeeeee;">However, the Governor wants to
reassure the bank’s customers that no one deposit will be lost as another
healthier bank, Afriland Firstbank, is taking over the (healthy) assets and
liabilities of the falling bank. This may prevent a rush to the cashiers’
desks…<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #eeeeee;">Fibank RDC SA was a subsidiary of a
West Africa banking group with its head-office in Banjul, Gambia. The bank has
started operating in the DRC in February 2009. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #eeeeee;">The bank was under the management of
the Central Bank for the last 18 months due to poor performance (notably in terms
of non performing loans) with the mission of stabilizing the institution and
(hopefully) to reinforce it…<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #eeeeee;">Whatever the reason for this
liquidation, this clearly demonstrates another failure from the banks regulator
in preventing another bank to get into trouble. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #eeeeee;">This is the second bank under BCC
supervision in less than 10 years that is liquidated and now all eyes are, once
again, on BIAC. Although, I think, economic operators have already factored in
the potential bankruptcy of BIAC; no one really knows how another bankruptcy
will impact people (low) confidence in our banking sector. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #eeeeee;">It is worth noting that Fibank was
one of the smallest banks while BIAC was the fourth largest bank in the DRC. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #eeeeee;">Today, it seems that the BCC is more
proactive in dealing with those issues although it may be already too late to
save BIAC…<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #eeeeee;">On to the next good news… <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
Herve Otschudihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02379026842351230693noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7237254009092019516.post-80998361693104889712017-06-05T10:46:00.001-07:002017-06-05T10:46:58.001-07:00Macro update (and the correlation between the CDF depreciation and the BIAC case… )<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <o:OfficeDocumentSettings> <o:AllowPNG/> </o:OfficeDocumentSettings> </xml><![endif]--> <!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:TrackMoves>false</w:TrackMoves> <w:TrackFormatting/> <w:PunctuationKerning/> <w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/> <w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:DoNotPromoteQF/> <w:LidThemeOther>FR</w:LidThemeOther> <w:LidThemeAsian>JA</w:LidThemeAsian> <w:LidThemeComplexScript>X-NONE</w:LidThemeComplexScript> <w:Compatibility> <w:BreakWrappedTables/> <w:SnapToGridInCell/> <w:WrapTextWithPunct/> <w:UseAsianBreakRules/> <w:DontGrowAutofit/> <w:SplitPgBreakAndParaMark/> <w:EnableOpenTypeKerning/> <w:DontFlipMirrorIndents/> <w:OverrideTableStyleHps/> <w:UseFELayout/> </w:Compatibility> <m:mathPr> <m:mathFont m:val="Cambria Math"/> <m:brkBin m:val="before"/> <m:brkBinSub m:val="--"/> <m:smallFrac m:val="off"/> <m:dispDef/> <m:lMargin m:val="0"/> <m:rMargin m:val="0"/> <m:defJc m:val="centerGroup"/> <m:wrapIndent m:val="1440"/> <m:intLim m:val="subSup"/> <m:naryLim m:val="undOvr"/> </m:mathPr></w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:LatentStyles DefLockedState="false" DefUnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">It’s been a while since I have updated you on the main economic indicators of the DRC. I guess I was expecting to come back to you with good news at some point but while I am still waiting for it to happen let’s have a look at the actual performance. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Let’s start with one of my favorites because of its impact on the other indicators, the exchange rate. Since the beginning of the year the local currency has lost 19% of its value against the US dollar! Since January the 1<sup>st</sup>, 2016 the currency has depreciated by 56% (while it was stable for 4 straight years before that)!!! <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">They are so many reasons that can explain this horrendous performance (commodities prices decrease, budget deficit, money creation, etc). <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">However, one of the reasons used last year by the former Prime Minister is not one of them! Indeed, the latter said last year that the main reason he has instructed the Central Bank of Congo (BCC) to stop refinancing the then 3<sup>rd</sup> largest bank of the country (leading to its quasi bankruptcy) was that this operation led to a depreciation of … 3%! <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">He was a bright man, therefore, all things being equal, you would expect that his decision would have had a positive impact of some sort on the exchange rate but since that decision and the resolution to put that bank under the control of the BCC, the Congolese Franc has lost 51%!!! Therefore, I am struggling to see the correlation between the BCC lending to BIAC and the depreciation </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "wingdings"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-char-type: symbol; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-symbol-font-family: Wingdings;"><span style="mso-char-type: symbol; mso-symbol-font-family: Wingdings;">J</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">. It would be like saying that the supervision of BIAC by the BCC led to a 51% depreciation of the local currency but this is a shortcut I am not ready to take contrary to the previous Prime Minister. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Anyway, we could debate all day on who/what is responsible for this situation but there is something more important. The impact it has on people lives. The country is importing almost everything he is consuming. Therefore, the CDF depreciation led to an important inflation of good and services (+31%) reducing drastically the purchasing power of anybody paid in the local currency (mainly civil servants), as their salaries have not been adjusted for inflation. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">As an example, a civil servant with a monthly salary in CDF equivalent of USD 100 (please note that this salary is not fictive) last year barely earns USD 65 today! I was already struggling to understand how one (with a full time job) could survive with USD 100 but now…<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The FOREX reserves dropped to USD 718m representing only 3 weeks of goods and services importations. As a result, we cannot expect any impactful intervention from the BCC anytime soon… <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">But we have a good new! We finally have the 2017 budget!!! Youhou! It is USD 3billion bigger than the one presented by the former Prime Minister (that did not stay long enough on the job to implement it). I can’t wait to have more details to understand how they intend to finance this budget increase based on the economic situation of the country… <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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Herve Otschudihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02379026842351230693noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7237254009092019516.post-55187172559286203752017-03-10T09:44:00.000-08:002017-03-10T09:44:11.972-08:00Road infrastructure in the DRC- Interesting data from the World Bank<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">Road infrastructure in
the DRC- Interesting data from the World Bank<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">I came across a World
Bank (WB) report on the DRC named <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">« Exogenous
Shock, Macroeconomic Stability and Development: Economic Policy Options »</i>
published in December 2016. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">I have discovered very
interesting facts on the country road infrastructure. The WB reports that the
level of coverage of the road network places the DRC well below the African
average, with its Road Network of General Interest (RRIG) representing a spatial
density of roads of 25 km/1000 km2 against an African average of 204 km/1000
Km2. Coverage in relation to the population is 0.9 km/ 1000 inhabitants
compared to an African average of 3.4 km/1000 inhabitants. It is worth noting
that only 26% of this RRIG can be used today!!!<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">The lack of quality and quantity
of road infrastructure obstructs the development of economic activities and
hinders the development of the private sector. Indeed, road infrastructure
provides physical access to resources and markets and facilitates trade between
the country provinces. In 2013, 24.8% of firms reported transportation problems
as a major constraint to their operations according to the report. This is due
to the fact that the majority of the territory remains inaccessible by roads,
which makes the displacements of people and goods very expensive.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">The WB continues by
saying that poor infrastructure in the DRC leads to productivity losses of up
to 40% and that by making the right investments, business costs could be
reduced by 80% and the costs of transporting agricultural products could be
reduced by 70%!!!<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">The maintenance is
another issue. Indeed, the maintenance deficit accelerates the deterioration of
existing roads and prevents the benefits of network expansion in circulation.
The reports says that in 2012 for example, the Office des Routes (government
agency in charge of road maintenance) was supposed to maintain 13,000 km of
roads but only maintained 7,600 km, representing 58% of the total. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">Although the report
recognizes an important increase in road infrastructure expenditures and an
improvement in the sector governance it is also saying that the government has
invested an average of 1.8% of GDP over 2008-2012 in its urban and inter-urban
networks, which is 1.2 percentage points lower than necessary to ensure
adequate maintenance and progressive development of the road network.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">Last but not least, the
DRC is almost always the most expensive country in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)
when it comes to cost of materials and work on road infrastructure as shown in
the table below. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoCaption" style="page-break-after: avoid;">
<span style="color: #cccccc;"><span lang="FR" style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;">Table </span><!--[if supportFields]><span
lang=FR style='font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;mso-ascii-font-family:
Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria'><span style='mso-element:field-begin'></span><span
style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>SEQ Table \* ARABIC <span style='mso-element:
field-separator'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="FR" style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;"><span style="mso-no-proof: yes;">1</span></span><!--[if supportFields]><span
lang=FR style='font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;mso-ascii-font-family:
Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria'><span style='mso-element:field-end'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="FR" style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;">: DRC ranking on </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;">cost of
materials and work on road infrastructure compared to SSA countries</span><span lang="FR" style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<tbody>
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<td style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 60.7pt;" valign="top" width="61">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 60.05pt;" valign="top" width="60">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 8.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">Asphalt<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 60.25pt;" valign="top" width="60">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 8.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">Crushed Stones<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 60.6pt;" valign="top" width="61">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 8.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">Gravel<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 59.8pt;" valign="top" width="60">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 8.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">Simple work on dirt road<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 62.2pt;" valign="top" width="62">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 8.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">Surface treatment<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 62.2pt;" valign="top" width="62">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 8.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">Double surface treatment<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 1;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 60.7pt;" valign="top" width="61">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 8.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">DRC ranking<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 60.05pt;" valign="top" width="60">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 8.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">2<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 60.25pt;" valign="top" width="60">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 8.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">2<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 60.6pt;" valign="top" width="61">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 8.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">1<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 59.8pt;" valign="top" width="60">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 8.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">5<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 62.2pt;" valign="top" width="62">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 8.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">2<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 62.2pt;" valign="top" width="62">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 8.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">1<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 2;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 60.7pt;" valign="top" width="61">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 8.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">Number of countries<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 60.05pt;" valign="top" width="60">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 8.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">11<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 60.25pt;" valign="top" width="60">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 8.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">8<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 60.6pt;" valign="top" width="61">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 8.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">10<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 59.8pt;" valign="top" width="60">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 8.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">12<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 62.2pt;" valign="top" width="62">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 8.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">6<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 62.2pt;" valign="top" width="62">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 8.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">7<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 3; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 60.7pt;" valign="top" width="61">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 8.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">Variance to the mean<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 60.05pt;" valign="top" width="60">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 8.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">+44,1%<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 60.25pt;" valign="top" width="60">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 8.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">+44,4%<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 60.6pt;" valign="top" width="61">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 8.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">+109,6%<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 59.8pt;" valign="top" width="60">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 8.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">+7,3%<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 62.2pt;" valign="top" width="62">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 8.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">+22,1%<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 62.2pt;" valign="top" width="62">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 8.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">+33,2%<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
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<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">Obviously, the full
report provides more details on the country road infrastructure but the few statistics
presented above were an eye opening for me on this crucial area of our economy.
Not only we are far behind our SSA peers in terms of road network development
but we are also one of the most expensive countries when it comes to
acquisition of materials and to the work on roads itself. Needless to say that
with our limited State Budget (not yet voted for 2017 by the way) this is not
good news… </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<!--EndFragment--></div>
Herve Otschudihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02379026842351230693noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7237254009092019516.post-65327371535247989902017-01-25T10:01:00.001-08:002017-01-25T10:01:54.136-08:00Why is the BCC interest rate increase won’t change anything? <div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">The Central Bank of Congo (BCC) has
increased its prime rate to 14% p.a. from 7% p.a in order to curb the inflation
that has reached 29,42% as of January the 13<sup>th</sup> , according to the
same BCC. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">In a “normal” economy, this increase
would impact the inflation by reducing spendings/investments due to higher
borrowing rates and increasing savings leading to less cash in circulation.
This increase should also have a positive impact on the currency, as placements
would become more attractive… <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">Well, this won’t work in the DRC,
and it never did, for several reasons…<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">First, the BCC rate has almost no
impact on the rate commercial banks are offering to their customers. Indeed,
85-90% of banks’ loans portfolios are in US dollars. Therefore, this increase
will only impact loans in CDF that barely represent 10% of the total loans
disbursed in the economy. The main problem here is that commercial banks are
not indebted to the BCC…<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">Secondly, there is almost no
financial instrument in CDF except from the BCC T-Bills. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>With an interest rate of 14% p.a., the maximum
yield one can expect for a 7 days maturity T-Bill (the only maturity offered
currently) is 14% p.a. With an inflation rate of 29,41%, the real interest rate
is negative, therefore not attractive. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">Finally, the weakness of the local
currency is playing a major role here. Indeed, the main part of the inflation
is “imported” due to the fact that the country is importing almost everything
that it is consuming. Therefore, the weaker the CDF, the higher the inflation. As
a result, even if people wanted to keep their savings in CDF (which is not the
case), they will tend to keep them in hard currencies such as the USD to
maintain their purchasing power. This is a vicious circle, the weaker the CDF,
the higher the inflation, the higher the demand for foreign currencies leading
to a further decrease of the CDF…<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">For all those reasons, the monetary
policy of the BCC is simply impotent…<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">One recent measure taken by the BCC
may actually improve the situation. Indeed, the BCC has increased the rates of
the mandatory reserves for banks on current and saving accounts in foreign
currencies from 10 to 13%. This measure has helped withdrawing more than CDF
150 billion ($125 million) from the economy. Several banks had to borrow CDF on
the interbank market or at the BCC. In the long run, this may oblige some banks
to sell their foreign currencies to respect this regulatory requirement. This
could reduce the pressure on the CDF… just a little bit…</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
Herve Otschudihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02379026842351230693noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7237254009092019516.post-85013274430529870322017-01-02T07:01:00.001-08:002017-01-02T07:01:39.476-08:00Congolese banks hit by the slowing economy in 2016...<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">Let me start by wishing you a happy
new year 2017! <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">In my previous <a href="http://drceconomy.blogspot.be/2016/12/2016-is-definitely-not-good-year.html" target="_blank">article</a>, I wrote that
the slowdown of the economy has had an enormous impact on the financial sector.
Thanks to the Central Bank Governor exchange of greetings ceremony speech, we
now have some figures to back what could be seen as speculations in my previous
article. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">Indeed, in his speech, the governor,
who revised the growth downward one more time to 2.5% for 2016 compared to 9.5%
and 6.9% respectively for 2014 and 2015, confirmed my previous assertion. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">At the end of November 2016, the
total balance sheet of the banking industry decreased by 5% to USD 4.9 billion compared to an
increase of 11% for the same period the previous year. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">Loans and advances to customers grew
by a meager 0,6% compared to 15,4% for the same period the previous year while
de total deposits have decreased by 6% to USD 3,4 billion. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">The industry profit has decreased by
USD 25,51 millions during the same period. I wrote in my previous article that:
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">“the shrinkage of the economy led to
several (small) businesses to close shop. The impact on the financial sector is
enormous with a significant increase in provisions for non-performing loans”</i>.
The governor confirms this by affirming that the portfolios of bad loans in the
industry have increased by 6 points of percentage from 13% to 19%. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">The liquidity ratio of the industry went
from 125% to 111% while the Capital Adequacy Ratio went down from 21 to 14%!
Although those ratios are still within the regulator’s limits of 100% and 10%,
this decrease is enormous and cannot be ignore…<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">Obviously, the governor has argued
that things would have being worse without the measures taken during the year
to prevent another bank’s bankruptcy but who can really tell…</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="color: #cccccc;">According to Reuters, the BCC
forecast a growth of 2.9% in 2017 which is better than the 2.5% of 2016 but yet insufficient to reduce the unemployment rate of the country and subsequently
its level of poverty…</span></div>
Herve Otschudihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02379026842351230693noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7237254009092019516.post-45996905647402598282016-12-19T03:47:00.002-08:002016-12-19T03:47:44.018-08:002016 is definitely not a good year economically. Thanks politicians...<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">I acknowledge the fact that today people
in general and Congolese in particular are more focused on the country political
situation as today is supposed to be the last day in office of the incumbent
president but the probability for him to leave by tomorrow is null. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">However, the political situation has
a serious impact on the economy of this country and the latter on the lives of millions.
Therefore, it is important to talk a little bit about the economical situation as
it stands currently. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">The former primer minister was very
proud of his macroeconomics achievements. Therefore, I would like to summarize
some of the key indicators, few weeks after his resignation. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">The GDP growth rate forecast for
2016 went down from 8,8% to below 4,3% and it is expected to grow to 5,5% in
2017 according to Central Bank. Data. The shrinkage of the economy led to
several (small) businesses to close shop. The impact on the financial sector is
enormous with a significant increase in provisions for non-performing loans. This
could further damage the sector already weaken by the bankruptcy of the fourth
largest lender. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">The reduction of foreign currencies
inflows has put pressure on the Congolese Francs that has depreciated by 38% since
the beginning of the year leading to an inflation of 16,39% y-o-y. I hear, here
and there, that this is mainly due to the mining companies revenues decrease following
weak copper and cobalt prices. Although this is partly true, the lack of energy
is one of the major reasons the output of those mining companies has dropped.
Mining companies have been crying for years for a more electricity but nothing
has been done except of lot of conferences on the country hydroelectric
potential. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">In addition to that, the failure to
diversify our economy has increased our dependency to the commodities market
(the mining sector was representing 50% of the GDP last year…) and made us vulnerable
to any price shock… <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">With the Central Bank prime rate up
to just 7% p.a., the real interest rate on the local currency is actually
negative. This will lead people wanting more and more hard currencies with
further depreciation to come. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">The 2017 state budget has being
presented at USD 4 billion against 8 billion the previous year. This will have
a negative impact on several industries, as the State is the #1 customer in
many of them such as automobiles, airlines, hotels, etc. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">Why is the budget size extremely
important for the years to come? Because the budget constraint was the main
argument used not to organize elections this year. Therefore, I wonder how are
we going to organize those costly elections in 2018 with a budget 50% smaller
than the one not big enough to organize the 2016 elections…<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">There are many more things we could say
regarding the (poor) state of this economy but my heart is not there… I will
stop here by saying that while politicians are fighting to obtain positions, no
wealth is created and worse, no (serious) investors will risk their money in
this long period of uncertainty ahead of us… <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">But I guess the name of the game for
them is to make as much money as possible in the shortest time possible to
ensure their family can study and receive medical treatments in proper schools
and hospitals they deny to their own people but I digress here… this is not a
political blog remember? but I guess I am just a concerned citizen… <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
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Herve Otschudihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02379026842351230693noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7237254009092019516.post-24124372060424074642016-10-31T10:25:00.000-07:002016-10-31T10:25:16.836-07:002016 is not a good year (at all) !!!<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;">Congolese Franc (CDF) depreciation,
Inflation, slower growth, budget costs (and in deficit), financial scandals, a
big bank bankrupt, etc. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;">The least we can say is that the DRC
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<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;">In less than a year, the CDF has
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Forex) continues struggling with low commodities prices and inadequate power
supply. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;">As a result, the government has
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he could do it again before the end of the year. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;">This high level of depreciation, in
a country where even tomatoes are imported, led to higher consumer prices. The
inflation is skyrocketing (+6,4% y-o-y) while it was contained below the 2%
over the last two years. Some shops in Lubumbashi (the economic capital) have
stopped displaying prices below items because they are moving too often…The direct
consequence is the increase of the Central Bank prime rate to 7% from 2%
leading to a higher cost of borrowing for those borrowing in CDF (a minority as
more than 90% of the loans are disbursed in USD but still…)<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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budget for 2017 and the latter stands at USD 4,5 billions.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is a 50% decrease compared to the 2016
budget (that was also reduced by 22% few months ago). <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #f3f3f3;">Thousands of people have lost their
jobs and this will continue if we do not take the necessary measures and those
measures include creating the environment for investors to put their money in
this country! The political uncertainty surrounding the (not-to-be-held-on-time
presidential elections) is not conducive to business…</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
Herve Otschudihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02379026842351230693noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7237254009092019516.post-14761474597737733472016-04-20T04:14:00.000-07:002016-04-20T07:45:45.430-07:00BIAC- what was the Government/Central Bank thinking about?! <div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">This article is not about throwing
stones at the 4th largest commercial bank of the DRC but about the reactions of
our government/central bank (BCC) to the issues faced by one of the most important
lenders in the economy. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">By withdrawing the credit line that
BIAC was enjoying for a while, the BCC has created a general panic among the
bank’s customers. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">It is difficult to understand why
the authorities will just shut down this credit line, create panic, and then
publish press release saying everything is fine don’t worry we are putting
that credit line back!<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">Why would you do something like that!?
Especially if it’s to put that credit line back few days later.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">How did they expect the 340 000
customers to react to a news that the bank is facing liquidity issue?! Off
course people will try to take back their savings before it is too late and
this is exactly what is happening now. The confidence is broken and it will
take a long time for the bank to regain its customers’ trust. Thanks to who?!<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">Don’t get me wrong, I am not against
BCC punishing banks that are not respecting the regulation but instead of reacting
a posteriori, the authorities should have ensure this situation never have
happened. Why do we have all those regulations if they are not controlled and
enforced efficiently? <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">The reason I am mixing the
government and the BCC here is because it is not clear which entity was at the
origin of this situation. However, the BCC is not independent from the
government, therefore it is not a big deal to know who caused this as at the
end of the day it is the same…<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">In default of creating jobs, the
government should try to avoid destroying the existing ones by using outrageous
maneuvers. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>BIAC has the largest number
of employees of the banking sector and the consequences of this foolish
decision could have disastrous effects on an economy that is already struggling
due to the commodities crisis and the political uncertainty. </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
Herve Otschudihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02379026842351230693noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7237254009092019516.post-4513244675534931342016-02-22T07:27:00.000-08:002016-02-22T07:27:08.337-08:00DRC to issue Treasury bonds… is it the right time? <div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">The government of the Democratic
Republic of the Congo has decided to issue Treasury Bonds to finance its
short/long term operations. The main reason for a government (or a company) to
issue bonds is to diversify its sources of funding. Central bank regulation
limits the amount any bank can lend to a single borrower. This amount is
particularly true in the DRC where banks balance sheet are too small to finance
big infrastructure projects even through credit syndication. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">The maturity to be offered are 3,6
and 12 months for “bons du trésor” and above 12 months for
« Obligations ».<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>“Bons du trésor”
can be regarded as T-Bills in other countries although they won’t be auctioned
off to investors at a discount to par. The “obligations” will be working more
like your regular T-Bonds. The bonds will be issued in Congolese Francs.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">There are several issues in my
opinion in issuing bonds in the current situation. The most obvious one is the
lack of trust in the local government. What will happen if the government fails
to pay its debt at maturity? The treasury could print more money to fix the
issue, right? The issue with printing more money is that the currency will lose
its value and the investors their money. As a consequence, the investors will
request higher yield to compensate the potential inflation. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">Another issue is linked to the
purpose of those bonds. What will the money be used for? The reason I am asking
that is that the bonds will be issued in the local currency but the country is
dollarized at more than 85%!<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If the
government raises money to pay for expenses that will be probably in USD
dollars then they will increase the demand for foreign currency on a market
that is already extremely tense (we will come back to this in a different
article) <span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: #cccccc;">My last observation and I am sure that we could find
many more is related to the political situation in the DRC. It is difficult to
imagine investors purchasing DRC long-term debt not knowing what will happen in
the near future. Uncertainty is very bad for business in general and it will
certainly be a major factor on either or not these issuances are a success or
not…</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
Herve Otschudihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02379026842351230693noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7237254009092019516.post-44147816137896862372015-09-03T04:44:00.000-07:002015-09-03T04:44:25.079-07:00Quick update on the DRC Macros…<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #eeeeee;">We are approaching the end of the
year and it's time to have a look at the Congolese main economic indicators. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="color: #eeeeee;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">GDP Growth</span></u></b><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">:
The government has revised its growth forecast to 9,2% (originally at 10,3%)
following the commodities prices decrease caused by the worries on the Chinese
economy hard landing. Since January 2015, the main commodities exported have
all seen their prices decreased particularly copper (-21%), Cobalt (-5%) and
Gold (-4%). <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #eeeeee;">The impact of the commodities market
on the GDP growth demonstrate the over reliance of the Congolese economy on its
mining sector. Last year the mining industry alone accounted for almost 50% of
the total growth. This year, the sector will be knocked by a probable
deceleration of the production due to electricity shortage as well as the price
decrease mentioned earlier.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="color: #eeeeee;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Inflation</span></u></b><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">:
still under control with a year-on-year inflation of 0,66% compared to a
forecast for 2015 of 3,6%. As a result, the Central Bank is maintaining its
prime rate at 2% p.a.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="color: #eeeeee;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Foreign exchange</span></u></b><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">: Still stable around 925 CDF for a USD.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="color: #eeeeee;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">International reserves</span></u></b><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">: as of August the 21<sup>st</sup>, the reserves stood at USD 1.622
billion representing 6.6 weeks of import of goods and services. The reserves
are down by approximately USD 18 million month-on-month. This can be explained
by the reduction of revenues generated by the mining sector. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #eeeeee;">Public finances</span></span></u></b><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #eeeeee;">: remain in surplus avec 7 months according the data from the Central
Bank. It is worth noting that the Government has exceed its budget related to
the national debt which is a good things for local businesses that often
complain that the government is freezing their payments and
destroying their activities. To know if the budget was big enough to satisfy
all creditors is another debate…</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
Herve Otschudihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02379026842351230693noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7237254009092019516.post-84639863282262276582015-03-26T09:15:00.001-07:002015-03-26T09:15:26.607-07:002014 GDP growth – the mining (non) effect <div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="FR"><span style="color: #eeeeee;">2014 GDP growth – the mining effect<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #eeeeee;">The Central
Bank of Congo (BCC) has recently released a very interesting report named
“report on the monetary policy 2014”.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #eeeeee;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #eeeeee;">According
to the BCC report, the economy grew by 9.5% in 2014 compared to 8.5% in 2013. This is
4.8% higher than the average of the SSA region. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="FR" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><span style="color: #eeeeee;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img src="webkit-fake-url://24a94d3d-6ca6-48be-bd8c-278736b5f09c/application.pdf" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" /></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Source: Central Bank of Congo</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="FR" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #eeeeee;"></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #eeeeee;">The primary sector remains the most important
contributor to the GDP as one could expect for a mining country like the DRC.
However, it is worth noting that 5 years ago it was not the mining but the
agriculture sector the main contributor to the country’s growth. In 2014, the
mining sector has contributed up to 50% to the country's growth while its
contribution was “only” 28% in 2013 according to that same report. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #eeeeee;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #eeeeee;">This report is clearly demonstrating the
tendency for the economy to heavily rely on its extractive sector with the risk of been
negatively impacted by a downturn in commodity prices (the copper price has
significantly dropped recently). The data show that the country should work
more on diversifying its economy. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #eeeeee;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #eeeeee;">According to the BCC, the total production of
copper was 1 million tons in 2014 compared to only 0.3 million tons 5 years
earlier. The total value of copper exported in 2014 was USD 7.4 billion while
the cobalt value was USD 2.2 billion. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #eeeeee;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #eeeeee;">On the paper, this looks good but when you are
travelling in the Katanga province, you don’t really notice the positive impact
those numbers have on the population unless you are working in one of the
mining “value chain” companies. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #eeeeee;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #eeeeee;">The debate is open between the mining companies
claiming they are paying taxes therefore it is the role of the government to
provide the basic services and the government that claims the mining companies
are not paying enough taxes thanks to a mining code too “favorable” to them. I
am sure this debate with continue for some times. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #eeeeee;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #eeeeee;">I am not a mining nor a taxes expert but a
couple of paragraph later in the report the BCC is mentioning a study done by a
Belgian professor Dr Marysse on Tenke Fungurume as well as an IMF comparative
study showing that the fiscal charges supported by the mining companies in the DRC
is approximately 13% of their turnover compared to 45 to 65% in the rest of the
world. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #eeeeee;">If those data are correct, I argue that there is
something wrong that the government would have to address in the new version of
the mining code they are working on. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #eeeeee;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #eeeeee;">The impact of the mining industry growth on the
population is yet to be felt and the government, in my opinion, should do
anything within its power to make sure the population starts benefiting from
this mining cycle before it is too late.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #eeeeee;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #eeeeee;">When I say everything in its power, I am not
talking about harassing the private sector obviously… </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
Herve Otschudihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02379026842351230693noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7237254009092019516.post-40217925629226109752015-02-20T02:24:00.000-08:002015-02-20T02:24:45.782-08:00What is wrong with those people ?!?!?!<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="FR"><span style="color: #eeeeee;">Few weeks ago the country’s Internet was blocked by the Congolese
authorities. While the Internet by satellite was reopen 3 to 5 days later, the
mobile Internet was still blocked three weeks later. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="FR"><span style="color: #eeeeee;">The reason to block Internet access was of course security issues according to the government.
They probably had in mind what happened in Egypt and other Arab countries
during the Arab spring. However, they need to remember that in Egypt the
penetration rate of mobile phone is more 112% compare to around 20% in the
DRC ! In those 20%, how many have smartphones ? And in those having
smartphones how many were demonstrating in the streets ?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In my opinion, the excuse used was poor and
definitely not the real one. Maybe they wanted to hide something… <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="FR"><span style="color: #eeeeee;">But I digress, this is not a political blog… <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="FR"><span style="color: #eeeeee;">In this country, most people use their smartphones to access the
Internet. I am personally using my phone 3G connexion as a modem… <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="FR"><span style="color: #eeeeee;">During the unrest, the government spokesman ask the population not to
worry and to continue their routine because everything was fine ! <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="FR"><span style="color: #eeeeee;">Can banks, telecoms, universities, travel agencies etc continue working
as usual without an Internet connexion !? Probably 30 years ago but not
anymore Mr. Minister. It gives us an idea on how our different ministries
operate… <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="FR"><span style="color: #eeeeee;">But remember this is not a political blog but this stupid decision has had
a huge impact on the economy as you can imagine. For example, banks were not
able to connect with the Central Bank for several days, which means that most
banking transactions were impossible to perform. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="FR"><span style="color: #eeeeee;">A customer of mine who could not received emails had to cross the river
to the other Congo to print a document and bring it back to Kinshasa for his
suppliers. Renting the boat + visa cost for him was around USD 400 (this excludes the
time lost).<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="FR"><span style="color: #eeeeee;">There are so many start-up created by young Congolese that are using
social media such as Facebook to communicate with their target market that are
losing money everyday because the Internet may be back but still no facebook,
Twitter, instagram etc. To use them you need to have a VPN installed and not
everyone knows about VPN (most of them are only free for a trial period
anyway).<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #eeeeee;"><span lang="FR">That makes me wonder how many people will read this article as it is
usually shared through those social media </span><span lang="FR" style="font-family: Wingdings; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-char-type: symbol; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-symbol-font-family: Wingdings;"><span style="mso-char-type: symbol; mso-symbol-font-family: Wingdings;">L</span></span></span><span lang="FR"> <o:p></o:p></span></div>
Herve Otschudihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02379026842351230693noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7237254009092019516.post-69734455651408653632014-10-23T08:04:00.000-07:002014-10-23T08:04:32.376-07:00Un peu sceptique quant à la réalisation du budget 2015 ... <div style="-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 13px; text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #cccccc;">Suite aux demandes de certains de mes lecteurs, certains articles seront désormais en français (ou dans les deux langues) </span></div>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 13px; min-height: 16px; text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #cccccc;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 13px; text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #cccccc;">Le Premier Ministre a récemment présenté au parlement un budget de 8,3 milliards de dollars (prés de $ 9 milliards selon certains médias) pour l'année 2015. (Entre le moment ou j’ai écrit cet article en anglais et aujourd’hui, le parlement a jugé recevable ce projet de budget) </span></div>
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<span style="color: #cccccc;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="color: #cccccc;">J’ai donc décidé d'aller sur le site de la Banque Centrale du Congo (BCC) jeter un coup d’oeil au budget 2014 afin de vérifier si le gouvernement congolais était aussi fou que les actionnaires de certaines de nos banques commerciales qui exigent des taux de croissance de 30% chaque année. </span></div>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 13px; min-height: 16px; text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #cccccc;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 13px; text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #cccccc;">Pour l’année 2014, le site parle d’un budget de CDF 7,400 milliards ce qui représente plus ou moins 8 milliards de dollars américains. Par conséquent, le budget 2015 ne représentent qu’une maigre augmentation de 3% et le moins que l’on puisse dire est qu’ils ne sont pas très ambitieux.</span></div>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 13px; min-height: 16px; text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #cccccc;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 13px; text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #cccccc;">Cependant, lorsque l’on regarde le taux de réalisation de ce fameux budget à la date du 12 Septembre 2014, on se rend compte que ce dernier ne s’élève qu’à 36%! A ce rythme, ce taux ne devrait atteindre que 54% d’ici la fin de l’année soit 4,4 milliards de dollars américains. </span></div>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 13px; min-height: 16px; text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #cccccc;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 13px; text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #cccccc;">Sur base de cette petite analyse, on se rend vite compte que l’augmentation réelle de ce budget d’une année à l’autre tournerait plutôt autour des 91%!!! Je sais que c'est important d’être optimiste dans la vie mais un petit peu de réalisme n’a jamais fait de mal à personne…</span></div>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 13px; min-height: 16px; text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #cccccc;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 13px; text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #cccccc;">Je n'ai pas encore vu les détails de ce budget, mais je suis curieux de voir comment ils vont générer ce niveau de revenus avec les performances actuelles. </span></div>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 13px; min-height: 16px; text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #cccccc;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #cccccc;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: x-small;"><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;">En ce qui concerne les dépenses, la dette </span><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">intérieure </span><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;">est, comme toujours, la dernière priorité des autorités congolaises. En effet, selon les chiffres de la BCC, au 9 septembre, elles n’avaient payé que 1,38% de ce qui était prévu dans le budget 2014 !!! Cette situation a un impact important sur les fournisseurs locaux et leur flux de trésorerie ainsi que sur l'économie globale dans son ensemble ... </span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #cccccc;"><br /></span></div>
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<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 13px; text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #cccccc;">À suivre ...</span></div>
Herve Otschudihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02379026842351230693noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7237254009092019516.post-61565098922477370372014-10-17T07:05:00.000-07:002014-10-17T07:05:34.512-07:00A quick update on the dedollarization process<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="FR"><span style="color: #eeeeee;">As you may (not) know, the Congolese authorities have started a process
to “dedollarize” the economy two years ago. The goal is to ensure the Congolese
Franc is progressively replacing the USD in the country’s daily operations.
Several measures such as the obligation to pay taxes in the local currencies or
the interdiction for commercial banks to lend to households in USD have been
implemented to ensure this objective is reached in a 5-7 years horizon. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span lang="FR"><span style="color: #eeeeee;">So, how are we performing more than two years after the start of this process?
Well, I will just give one figure to illustrate the situation. As of December
2013, 85.1% of all banks deposits were in USD. 6 months later, the figures
increase to 86%! Not the expected result…<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="FR"><span style="color: #eeeeee;">Obviously, we should not expect obtaining significant improvement in
such a short period of time but ideally it would have been good to notice at
least a reduction of the phenomenon and not the opposite. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
Herve Otschudihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02379026842351230693noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7237254009092019516.post-38983123891549778692014-10-06T04:34:00.000-07:002014-10-06T04:34:19.494-07:00A little bit skeptical about the realization of the 2015 budget…<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="FR"><span style="color: #cccccc;">The prime minister has presented a USD 8.3 billion budget for the year
2015. So, I have decided to go on the Central Bank (BCC) website to look for the
2014 budget to see if the government was as crazy as commercial banks’
shareholders that always want 30% growth year-on-year (Y-O-Y). <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="FR"><span style="color: #cccccc;">For 2014, the website has mentionned a CDF 7.4 trillion budget which is
more or less USD 8 billion. Therefore, the increase is a meagre 3% and we can
fairly say that they are not very ambitious. </span></span></div>
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<span lang="FR"><span style="color: #cccccc;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="color: #cccccc;"><span lang="FR">However, when we look at the 2014 budget rate
of realization as of September 12th, you will realize that they have only
achieved 36% of their budget so far. On a run rate, they will reach 54% by the
end of the year which represents approximately </span><span lang="FR" style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">USD 4.4 billion. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="color: #cccccc; font-family: Calibri;">Therefore,
at this trend, the budget Y-O-Y increase is 91% !!! I know that it is
important in life to be optimistic but remaining realistic is of essence here.
I haven’t seen the details of this budget yet but I am curious to see how they
will generated this level of revenues. I hope it won't be through fiscal harassment... <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">Regarding
the expenditures, the internal debt is, as always, the last priority of the
Congolese authorities. Indeed, according to the BCC’s figures, as of September,
they have only paid 1.38% of what was planned in their 2014 budget !!!
This situation has a significant impact on the local suppliers and their
cash-flow and on the economy overall…<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="FR"><span style="color: #cccccc;">To be continued… </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
Herve Otschudihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02379026842351230693noreply@blogger.com3