We are approaching the end of the
year and it's time to have a look at the Congolese main economic indicators.
GDP Growth:
The government has revised its growth forecast to 9,2% (originally at 10,3%)
following the commodities prices decrease caused by the worries on the Chinese
economy hard landing. Since January 2015, the main commodities exported have
all seen their prices decreased particularly copper (-21%), Cobalt (-5%) and
Gold (-4%).
The impact of the commodities market
on the GDP growth demonstrate the over reliance of the Congolese economy on its
mining sector. Last year the mining industry alone accounted for almost 50% of
the total growth. This year, the sector will be knocked by a probable
deceleration of the production due to electricity shortage as well as the price
decrease mentioned earlier.
Inflation:
still under control with a year-on-year inflation of 0,66% compared to a
forecast for 2015 of 3,6%. As a result, the Central Bank is maintaining its
prime rate at 2% p.a.
Foreign exchange: Still stable around 925 CDF for a USD.
International reserves: as of August the 21st, the reserves stood at USD 1.622
billion representing 6.6 weeks of import of goods and services. The reserves
are down by approximately USD 18 million month-on-month. This can be explained
by the reduction of revenues generated by the mining sector.
Public finances: remain in surplus avec 7 months according the data from the Central
Bank. It is worth noting that the Government has exceed its budget related to
the national debt which is a good things for local businesses that often
complain that the government is freezing their payments and
destroying their activities. To know if the budget was big enough to satisfy
all creditors is another debate…
