Friday, April 4, 2014

DRC Public Finances are not doing that bad! Really?



First of all sorry for being absent for so long...

I have been looking at the public finances figures provided by the Central Bank of Congo on their website. For the year 2013, the budget deficit was a meager USD 10k which is not bad for any country; although a surplus would have been good for a country that cannot raise funds abroad to finance its deficit…
Anyway, when we look closer at those figures compared to the 2013 budget, we realize how poorly the government performed during that year. It is either they have difficulties preparing a realistic budget or they simply registered a poor performance in terms of collecting revenues. 

Indeed, in 2013, the government has only achieved 59% of its budget in terms of revenues. As a result, in order to keep the budget “balanced” the government has squeezed its expenses. For example, the government has planned to pay its local debts up to USD 86m (which is already a tiny amount) and in reality only paid USD 83k, which represents only 0.1% of its 2013 budget. 

The fact that the government is not paying its local debts has obvious negative consequences for the economy. Indeed, the main debtors are Congolese companies/business(wo)men and not paying them has a huge impact on their cash-flow and revenues. It limits their ability to grow and to create jobs. Some businesses had to borrow funds from the banking sector to win these public tenders and cannot respect their commitments today. 

The overall debt (extern and internal) has been paid up to 34% of the budget. I argue that the macroeconomic stability observed lately would not have been the same if the government had made those payments. 

However, when it comes to “remuneration”, the realization rate jumps to 95%. According to the Central Bank figures, this category represented 37% of the total government expenses in 2013!
On another note, we are still waiting for the new government, 6 months after it was announced. The current one is kept busy by the day to day activities and cannot take any new commitment. The direct consequences are fewer orders, less payments and therefore a reduction of the economic activities in several sectors where the State is one of the most important customers such as automobile for example…

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